S&P at year end.

The S&P is at the same level it started a year ago, despite huge volatile periods.
The Federal Reserve, the US Credit Downgrade by Standard and Poors, the deterioration situation in Europe, Congress Debt Ceiling debacle, Japan's Earthquake, all these events contributed to the huge market swings, but the market remained within a range and it's flat for the year.

Wisdom

Sometimes It Is Best Not to Trade What You Think
This statement does need some qualifiers, so here they are. First, if we think something seems logical, we need to wait for the market to prove us out before we go “all in on margin” because we are sure of what the market will do next. Second, simply because something makes sense doesn’t mean the market will respond in the way we think it will or at the time we think it will.

Range Trading Action

The S&P has been trading in a range for the last couple of months, and ended the 3rd quarter close to the bottom of that range. The first trading day of the 4th quarter has been positive 80% of the time, which suggests a green day for Monday. What we really have to look in our trading is to focus on a break of the range to either side. If we see the price breaking above 1230, the trend should be long and conversely if the price action breaks below 1100, the trend would be bearish for more selling ahead. On the other hand, the market can remain trading withing a range for longer periods of time, as we saw from February through July. Until the new trend is defined, quick profit taking is a must.

Wisdom

Trend trading is not a holy grail or a hyped-up secret black box, either. Beyond the mere rules, the human element is core to the strategy. It takes discipline and emotional control to stick with trend trading through the inevitable market ups and downs. Keep in mind, though, that trend followers expect ups and downs. They are planned for in advance.
According to an ancient proverb, "failure to plan is planning for failure." Trend followers succeed because they have implemented an investment approach that focuses on risk management and strict adherence to rules.

Death Cross

The death cross triggered this month will confirm if the market is unable to break resistance at the 50 EMA, in which case support at 1100 could be broken.

S&P Broke Support

Yesterday the S&P broke the head & shoulders support around 1260, indicating more selling ahead.
The next level of support is around 1175 and if that one doesn't hold we could go as low as 1060

Wisdom

"The ego is not your friend as a trader. The ego wants to be right, it wants to predict, and it wants to know secrets.
The ego makes it much more difficult to trade well by avoiding the cognitive biases that hinder profits." - Curtis Faith

Sell in May and go away.

Basically worked like a charm, as the market has been trading within a downtrend channel since the beginning of the month.
1335 - 1338 is the number to break the channel to the upside and go long, in the meantime the 100 Day Moving Average is offering resistance, so selling the rallies is still in play.

Trading

"There is no magic to trading. It is about
putting the odds on your side and not
trading unless they are. This sounds
simple, but it takes a few years to get
good at it."